Gulf States Signal Possible Entry Into Iran War

Three weeks of Iranian missiles landing on countries that wanted nothing to do with this war may have accomplished what American diplomacy couldn’t: building a coalition willing to fight.

Saudi Arabia recently agreed to let U.S. forces use its King Fahd air base on the western side of the Arabian Peninsula, according to the Wall Street Journal, reversing a pre-war position that the kingdom wouldn’t allow its facilities or airspace to be used for attacks on Iran. That attempt at neutrality collapsed when Iran began hitting Saudi energy facilities and Riyadh itself. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now “close to a decision to join the attacks,” the Journal reported. One source said it’s “only a matter of time” before Saudi Arabia enters the war. The Saudi foreign minister put it bluntly: patience with Iranian attacks is limited. 

The UAE is moving in a similar direction. It shut down the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club in Dubai, institutions the government said were directly linked to the regime and “misused to advance agendas that do not serve the Iranian people.” The hospital’s phones, WhatsApp channel, and website went dark. The UAE has also warned it could freeze billions of dollars in Iranian holdings, a move that would cut Tehran’s access to foreign currency and global trade networks at a time when Iran’s domestic economy is already buckling under inflation and sanctions. The UAE is also lobbying against any ceasefire that leaves Iran’s military capability intact.

Since the war began, Iran has struck all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The UAE alone has fended off more than 2,000 attacks. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, which processes 20% of global LNG supply, took direct hits. And Saudi Arabia has been intercepting ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh. 

Despite now cozying up to the West, the Gulf states are also angry at the U.S. After an earlier Israeli strike on fuel depots in Tehran triggered Iranian retaliation that damaged Gulf energy infrastructure, Arab states lobbied Washington to prevent further strikes on Iranian energy targets. They thought they’d succeeded. Instead, the U.S. allowed Israel to strike South Pars, Iran’s largest gas field. In retaliation, Iran hit Ras Laffan, Saudi Red Sea facilities, and infrastructure in Kuwait and the UAE within hours. The Gulf states are unified in their fury at Iran, but they’re also discovering how little influence they have over the decisions of the ally they’ve invested billions in.

Meanwhile, the IRGC spent the weekend escalating threats. After Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to reopen Hormuz, the IRGC said it would hit power plants supplying electricity to American bases across the region and “completely destroy” companies with U.S. ownership stakes. 

Then Monday morning, Trump posted that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” and extended the deadline by five days. Markets surged. Oil dropped.

Iran denied everything within the hour. The Foreign Ministry said “there is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington” and called Trump’s extension “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans.” State television ran a graphic: “U.S. president backs down following Iran’s firm warning.”

What’s actually happening, according to Axios, is that Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing messages between Washington and Tehran. Trump is calling intermediary back-channels “productive conversations.” Iran is calling them “no dialogue.” Both are technically accurate.

The market reaction is worth scrutinizing. Oil dropped and stocks surged on Trump’s Truth Social post alone, before Iran’s denial landed. This pattern has repeated since the start of the war: Trump posts something that sounds like progress, markets move, then reality fails to match. Hormuz is still closed, transit is down 94%, and Israel launched yet another wave of strikes on Tehran Monday morning. The war is not pausing. But perhaps Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has a point. During a Meet The Press interview on Sunday, he said on that “sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.”

Trump’s newly proposed five-day window is real. So is the IRGC’s published target list. For the Gulf states, joining the war carries enormous risk. But so does sitting out a war that’s already being fought from your air bases, with your airports on fire, while your enemy announces plans to charge you tolls for shipping your own oil.